In the first study we will see how the people will perceive the risk when the same risk information is provided in different manner.
All participants will be asked to imagine that they are planning to buy a house and that they had received some information about the probability of a earthquake. In the scenario it will be emphasized that this earthquake causes severe damage, which is only partly covered by insurance. The information provided about the risk will be in 4 ways: Statement 1: On an average, there is a earthquake every hundred years. Statement 2: Each year, there is a 1% probability of earthquake. Statement 3: Within 40 years, there is a 33% probability of earthquake. Statement 4: Within 80 years, there is a 55% probability of earthquake.
After providing any one statement, participants will be asked "How risky would you consider living in a place like this?" Participants will assess the risks using a number between 1 ("not risky at all") and 10 ("very risky").
Expected: Results of Study 1 will be expected to be in line with the hypotheses deduced from the affect heuristic. For probabilities presented for a longer time period, the longer time period strongly emphasized the threat of a risk.
In the second study we will see how the past experiences of the people plays a role in perceiving risks.
In this experiment half of the participants are those who had experienced flooding situations and other half which do not have such experience. All participants will be asked to imagine that they are planning to buy a house, and that they received some information about the probability of a flood. In the scenario it will be emphasized that this flood causes severe damage, which is only partly covered by insurance.
The information will be provided in these four ways: 1. Probability of 1% within one year, without graphical display 2. Probability of 1% within one year, with graphical display 3. Probability of 26% within 30 years, without graphical display 4. Probability of 26% within 30 years, with graphical display
Graphical display:
Again after providing any one of the information above, participants will be asked "How risky would you consider living in a place like this?" Participants will assess the risks using a number between 1 ("not risky at all") and 10 ("very risky").
Expected: Results of Study 2 will be expected to be in line with the hypotheses that the past experience would increase perceived risks, independent of the information provided.
In the third study we will see how the availability of the images of the houses affected by earthquake will affect the people to perceive risk.
In this experiment 2 groups of the participants will be formed. Group 1 will be asked to look at two photographs showing houses during earthquake. Whereas Group 2 will be asked to look at two photographs showing houses without any reference to earthquake. Participants will be allowed to see photographs only for 30 seconds.
Again all participants will be asked to imagine that they are planning to buy a house, and that they received some information about the probability of a earthquake. In the scenario it will be emphasized that this earthquake causes severe damage, which is only partly covered by insurance.
The information will be provided in these two ways: 1. Probability of 1% within one year. 2. Probability of 26% within 30 years.
Then after providing any one statement, participants will be asked "How risky would you consider living in a place like this?" Participants will assess the risks using a number between 1 ("not risky at all") and 10 ("very risky").
Expected: Results of Study 3 will be expected to be in line with the hypotheses that availability of affect-laden images about earthquakeing events increased perceived risks.